NNTB

An AOL straw poll that is supposed to be spam proof shows both Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul winning their respective primaries. The poll records national as well as state-by-state results. At the time of this report over 57,000 Republicans and 56,000 Democrats have voted in the poll.

On the Democratic side the results somewhat mirrored media generated polls. Nationally Clinton has 46%, Barack Obama 27%, John Edwards 17%, Biden 4%, Kucinich 3%, Richardson 2%, Gravel 1%, and Dodd 1%.

Clinton leads in most states but Obama leads in Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, and Wyoming.



In Iowa the race is tight where Obama leads with 31% followed by Clinton with 30%and Edwards with 24%.

In New Hampshire, Clinton has 46%, Obama 26%, and Edwards has 15%.

On the Republican side the results mirrored media generated polls with one exception. Ron Paul is placing first in most states and second in several others.

The results of the other candidates did mirror media generated polls. Giuliani is winning in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut but is being edged out by Paul in Florida and New Mexico. Florida and New Mexico have changed hands several times between Giuliani and Paul.

Romney is winning Utah, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

Huckabee is edging out Paul in South Carolina and is being edged out by Paul in several southern states. Several southern states are virtual ties and have swung back and forth between Huckabee and Paul, including North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Nationwide Ron Paul is generating 26% of the vote, Giuliani is getting 18%, Huckabee 17%, and Romney is getting 15%, McCain has 14%, Thompson 9%, and Duncan Hunter has 1%.

In Iowa Ron Paul has 38% of the vote. The rest of the GOP candidates mirror media generated polls regarding strength in the state. Huckabee and Romney are tied at 19%. Thompson has 9%, McCain 7%, and Giuliani 7%, with Hunter at 1%.

In New Hampshire Paul has 30% Romney 23% McCain 20%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 8%, Thompson 3%, and Hunter 1%. Once again, aside from Paul the candidates mirror media polls regarding strength nationally and regionally.

Paul supporters have maintained that media generated polls have been under representing his support. Paul leads GOP candidates in 4rth quarter fund raising. He has received donations from an astounding 123,000 donors this quarter.

Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul winning big on AOL straw poll

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NNTB

USADAILY- Ron Paul will win by a landslide
Ron Paul will win by a landslide
Larry Fester
Published 12/23/2007 - 8:35 p.m. EST
Analysis/Opinion-Republican presidential candidate and Texas Congressman, Ron Paul, can win the presidency. Contrary to the pundits and media propaganda, Ron Paul is best positioned to win the GOP nomination.

Ron Paul has more money than his opponents and is just starting to gain momentum. As a result of massive popular support Paul’s donor base is huge and donors are not close to reaching contribution limits. Paul’s opponents are going broke and their donors are maxed out. Ron Paul may raise 20 million this quarter and chances are he’ll raise more the next quarter.

To get an idea of how strong Paul’s support is consider this. Ron Paul received donations from over 123,000 people this quarter. If one out of 100 voters donate to a presidential candidate that means Paul has the support of over 12 million primary voters. My guess is that less than 1 out of 100 voters donate in a primary.

Of Paul’s opponents, John McCain and Mike Huckabee are broke and don’t have the funds to compete on Super Tuesday. Both candidates appear to be media creations in this election and don’t have that much popular support. If it weren’t for undeserved free media they wouldn’t be on the radar screens.

Giuliani was forced to go with his big state strategy because he ran the risk of getting creamed in early primaries. He appears to be a lead balloon and runs the risk of losing some of those big states to Paul. Thompson just hasn’t taken off. There is a chance he could get revived in South Carolina but he may not make it that far.

Romney is self financing his campaign and can go the distance, but how much of his personal wealth is he willing to squander?

Recent commentaries and political talk have mentioned the possibility of a brokered convention. This is an early admission by pundits that Ron Paul can’t be stopped, and a hope that he won’t have 50% of the delegates allowing his opponents to broker a deal to deny him the nomination.

Paul is unique among GOP candidates because his support is national. He can compete in every state.

The primary calendar has been frontloaded which was deliberate to keep second tier candidates (candidates not bought and paid for) from having a shot at winning the nomination. It is doubtful that when planning the schedules anybody had a clue that Ron Paul would be one of the only candidate that could be competitive on February 5th

Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, Maine are all up for grabs prior to Super Tuesday which is on February 5th. Given the low expectations Paul only needs to win one of these to show that he can win prior to Super Tuesday.

The Iowa caucus on January 3rd will be a tough start for Paul. He hasn’t spent that much time in Iowa and may not have the organization that Romney does to win the caucus. Placing in the top five is all that is needed there. A third place would be huge.

Two days later on January 5th is the Wyoming Caucus. This state is a neighbor of Utah and Romney may have a strong organization here as well. Paul may do well here though.

January 8th in New Hampshire is where the campaign really starts for Ron Paul. He doesn’t need to win it but he probably will. Buchanan won this state in 1996 running on similar campaign themes with 27% of the vote. Paul’s support is much broader.

Paul’s odds look good for Michigan on January 15th. The state is a foreclosure war zone and Paul’s blaming of the Federal Reserve for creating a housing crash may resonate well.

January 19th Nevada and South Carolina are up for elections. Paul should win Nevada and has an outside shot at South Carolina.

On January 29th Florida is up. This is the state where Giuliani has circled his wagons. If he’s still in the race it will be an uphill battle for him especially if Paul has momentum generated by a couple victories. There is evidence of Paul support in Florida on the ground just by observing bumper stickers and yard signs on residences but Giuliani also has some visible support.

Of course, if Paul wins New Hampshire the momentum generated from that victory is likely to steam roll his campaign through all of the above mentioned states setting him up for the knock out punch on Super Tuesday.

If Ron Paul doesn’t have the nomination sewed up on Super Tuesday, Paul’s delegate rich home state of Texas will be the final nail in the coffin come March.

The point is it is already too late to stop Paul. He’s going to win the Republican nomination.

As a general election candidate Ron Paul will win a 50 state landslide against any Democratic nominee.

Ron Paul’s opposition to the war in Iraq, and defense of the Bill of Rights, and Civil Liberties, may actually dig deeply into the Democratic vote and overwhelmingly attract independents to his campaign.

His support for secure borders as an integral part of national defense is also a very popular issue that transcends parties.

If Ron Paul is the GOP nominee it won’t matter if Bloomberg or anybody else runs as a third party candidate. Once people go to Paul’s website and review his issues and record they either reject Paul’s ideas or they are sold. Paul will not lose any supporters to another candidate once they are in his camp.

Unlike media propaganda, the ideals of peace, freedom, and prosperity, are very mainstream. To the aging baby boomer population now on fixed incomes, Ron Paul’s challenging of the Federal Reserve’s ‘Inflation Tax’ is most welcomed. To the rest of America feeling the double whammy of an ‘Inflation Tax’ and progressive federal income taxes, Paul’s calls to end the income tax are a cause for celebration.

In fact, Paul’s calls for reforming the monetary system, the income tax, foreign policy, and protecting the Constitution, are a lot more mainstream than pre-emptive nuclear war, no borders, and a police state are.

Those media generated polls are as valuable as the media propaganda that pushed the nation to war in Iraq. People should have as much faith in polls as they do the Easter Bunny and computerized voting. Ron Paul is going to win by a landslide.


Ron Paul will win by a landslide

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Zappa

I'm glad he's starting to do well, though I would argue that in this case, it is still a straw poll. The voting day is what really matters.

What I like about Paul is how he's managed to sell libertarianism. For that, he's the best person to sell libertarian ideas since Milton Friedman. If Milton didn't die last year, I'm sure it would be interesting what he'd have to say. But yeah, it's wonderful what Paul has done in that category. Ludwig Von Mises, the genius he was, was awfully akward (a story goes that he walked out of a room after a libertarian discussion and shouted "You're all a bunch of socialists!") to the mainstream, and Hayek faired slightly better but still bad at defending classical liberal ideas when in the slight of John Maynard Keynes.

I don't know if Paul will win, but I do know that even if he didn't win in the slightest, he's still managed to do what Goldwater did, and within 20 years the following he has will take these ideas and put them to good use for sure.

skelooth

Even though Ron Paul is a republican and does not want the same things as I do (universal health care, gay union rights, pro choice), I wouldn't mind him being president. He's a nice balance between conservatism and liberalism.

If given the choice though, I'm sorry, I still have to vote for clinton. Ron paul is only the best of the republican's in my view.

Any democrat that says "i changed support from obama/hillary to paul" was never a democrat to begin with. I say this because I saw multiple instances of people claiming to 'change camps'.

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Zappa

I don't think it's a matter of parties, honestly. Both the RP and the DP are corrupt institutions on any note, but if they do get good canidates, you need to grab that opportunity by its feet. Honestly, I wouldn't trust Hillary for a second. She's more than likely to get caught up with the foreign policy game just as Bill did, and if she does win, it's highly unlikely that she would clean up the mess that George Bush did to civil liberties. I may not be keen on Ron Paul's stance on gay marriage and some other smaller issues, but I think only he, Kucinich, or Gravel, would be the only practical canidates who would secure individual liberty. I'm not saying Hillary would do as much damage to individual freedom as Bush or Lincoln did, but if you ask me, a big government liberal is no different from a big government conservative: they're both unhealthy and have the potential to gradually tear this country from the inside out.

BigZeke

Shame Billary is on there.

I don't think this is truely indicative of what we'll see come election time. However, if it is I'm voting for Ron Paul.

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BigZeke

This is a joke right? He's the antithesis of liberalism; he's Milton Friedman's wet dream. In case you didn't know, Friedman was the largest proponent of free market capitalism.

I thought Friedman's negative tax was too liberal for my likings, although I do agree with much else that he talked about. I'm very free market and fiscally probably as conservative as you can get. I'd prefer a Fair Tax program (I think 10% is perfect, ditch sales tax too, it's bullshit and unconstitutional), as I do not think Ron Paul's idea of eliminating sales tax is pragmatic.

The only problem I have with Paul's elimination of sales tax is that it will force us to remove gov't programs that are necessary to the survival of the country. This is pretty much the mantra for libertarians however.

I would not agree with removing Income Tax if it meant that we had to decrease the military budget. I would be okay with removing almost any other bullshit program like Environment and whatnot. But if anything we should be feeding the military MORE money, not less.

We would save a lot of money if we got out of the UN and their bullshit programs. I don't like my tax dollars going to some nation that hates us that isn't going to pay us back.

Get out of the UN, give them until 2009 to leave the UN Building in NY, then turn it into an apartment building or a hotel. Done deal.

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skelooth

I'm not saying Hillary would do as much damage to individual freedom as Bush or Lincoln did

Emancipation proclamation? Maybe I'm not educated about lincoln, but I could have sworn he did a lot of good for freedom.

As for Ron Paul being a nice balance, do you know what the definitions of conservative and liberal are?

I'm not sure where you see the word capitalism in there, or why being a capitalist is the only thing that determines if you are conservative or liberal. Conservative vs Liberal are the two far ends of ideologies.

And just to note, President Bush was a very light conservative. He was only conservative on a few core principles, the rest of the time the republican party squirmed at his beliefs.

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BigZeke

Name one individual freedom you lost since 2000.

Fiscally Hillary would be the worst president since Jimmy Carter, expect to see interest rates back up at 20%, which I won't mind when I buy large amount, long term CDs and money markets, aside from that it would be murder on everyone else.

I do, you don't. I don't care about the dictionary definition, I care about how it's applied in the real world.

Liberals are about adding more gov't; free health care, higher tax rates, gov't subsidized programs, etc.... Fiscally liberals are socialists. Look at Canada for an example of this, they're technically a socialist nation.

If you've read anything that Hillary has spoken about it sounds like it comes straight out of Marx's manifesto. Free money for newborns, forced healthcare, high tax rates for upper class and corporations, etc... Expect her to add the hammer & sickle to the flag too.

Don't tell me that liberals aren't socialists, because it's a lie.

Conservatives are about less gov't; privatized health care, low tax rates, etc... Fiscally conservatives, even neo-cons, are free market capitalists.


Ron Paul is about ZERO gov't. How is he anywhere near anything that the liberals stand for? He's a libertarian, despite the name sounding remotely similar, they are nearly polar opposites in practice.

I brought up the point about capitalism because it's important, there's more to politics than if Jim and Bill can get married.

Yeah, he's very liberal as far as I'm concerned, so are pretty much all neo-cons. I would consider myself an old school Conservative.

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skelooth

I can't argue with someone who makes up their own definitions with no sense of gravity concerning important ideologies and practices.

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romanaz

well the government taps my phone line w/o my permission... theres one freedom I've lost since 2000.

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BigZeke

Last I recall the NSA weren't tapping all phones.

CNN.com - Bush says he signed NSA wiretap order - Dec 17, 2005

I don't think you're one of those people...

So you're still battting a big 0 on the freedoms we've supposedly lost.

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skelooth

http://www.chuckbaldwinlive.com/bushfreedomslost.html

Freedoms Lost Under G.W. Bush

*FREEDOM OF ASSOCIATION: Government may monitor religious and political institutions without suspecting criminal activity to assist terror investigations.

*FREEDOM OF INFORMATION: Government has closed once- public immigration hearings, has secretly detained hundreds of people without charges, and has encouraged bureaucrats to resist public records questions.

*FREEDOM OF SPEECH: Government may prosecute librarians or keepers of any other records if they tell anyone that the government subpoenaed information related to a terror investigation.

*RIGHT TO LEGAL REPRESENTATION: Government may monitor federal prison jailhouse conversations between attorneys and clients, and deny lawyers to Americans accused of crimes.

*FREEDOM FROM UNREASONABLE SEARCHES: Government may search and seize Americans' papers and effects without probable cause to assist terror investigation.

*RIGHT TO A SPEEDY AND PUBLIC TRIAL: Government may jail Americans indefinitely without a trial.

*RIGHT TO LIBERTY: Americans may be jailed without being charged or being able to confront witnesses against them.

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romanaz

yeah but that doesn't mean they don't use it on us 'regular' people. I'll look for it online, but I remember someone in the government using it to tap people other then suspected terrorists.

plus the word "suspected" can be used VERY loosely.